Improving fundamentals face off against elevated valuations, fuelling volatility
Global growth is likely to slow considerably in the second half of 2025. Heightened geopolitical tensions, tariffs and policy uncertainty is dragging sentiment, investment and hiring plans. Consumption in the US will be weighed by the lagged impact of tighter monetary...
Trade turmoil slows growth and encourages more dramatic rate cuts
Trade war will intensify the global growth slowdown this year and next as supply chains are disrupted, consumer and business confidence are dragged and inflation jumps at least temporarily. Mild US recession is now more likely. China to US container loads have already...
Strategic investment insights for a shifting global economy
Global activity continues a path of slower economic growth with inflation and interest rates settling above average levels for the decade prior to the pandemic. Unusually high levels of geopolitical and political volatility are unlikely to alter this progression....
Markets propelled by higher valuation multiples, promise of lower rates and lifted fiscal spending
Global activity has been surprisingly resilient in the face of higher interest rates, post-pandemic supply disruptions and crises in Ukraine and the Middle East. A more obvious slowing should be evidenced in coming months. Restrictive monetary policy is likely to be...
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